Mortgage rates : tracking their evolution month by month

Mortgage rates are usefully read month by month, as even a limited change can affect your borrowing capacity, monthly payment and the pace at which properties come back onto the market. The update published by the Banque de France on 6 October 2026 shows that in August 2026, the average rate for new housing loans excluding renegotiations reached 3.32 %, after 3.30 % in July, while lending rose to 12.2 billion after 11.1 billion.

For a purchase on the Alabaster Coast, following this trend does not mean guessing a perfect low point. It is instead about understanding what the official figure measures, identifying a trend, then comparing that trend with your budget, deposit and the still-cautious lending criteria observed on the French market.

Key points to remember

• In August 2026, the average rate for new residential loans excluding renegotiations stood at 3.32%, after 3.30% in July and 3.27% in June.
• Monthly lending for housing excluding renegotiations reached 12.2 billion euros in August 2026, after 11.1 billion euros in July and 13.2 billion euros in June.
• Since the end of 2025, monthly production has fluctuated between 10.9 and 13.2bn euros.
• After the decline that began in mid-2024, a plateau appears around mid-2025, with an average rate of 3.08 % in December 2025, followed by a slight rise at the beginning of 2026.
• Residential lending remains overwhelmingly on fixed rates, with nearly 99.6% of lending in 2025.

What the figure published each month really measures

When discussing mortgage rates, the most useful monthly figure is that for new home loans. The Banque de France specifies that this is an effective rate in the narrow sense, meaning the interest component of the TEG. In other words, it is not a total cost including all additional fees and insurance.

This point is essential when comparing months without confusion. The published rate is used to monitor a general trend in lending, not to reconstruct the full cost of an individual application. Two households may therefore obtain different overall terms, even during a month when the national average rate changes little.

Banque de France also distinguishes between new lending and outstanding balances. New lending refers to loans granted, even if they have not yet been drawn down. Changes in outstanding balances, on the other hand, depend on actual drawdowns and repayments of existing loans. To monitor the market month by month, new lending is often the most informative indicator.

How to interpret a monthly change without jumping to a conclusion too quickly

An increase over one month does not necessarily indicate a lasting reversal. Between May and June 2026, the average rate rose from 3.21 % to 3.27 %, while housing loan production excluding renegotiations increased from 11.4 billion euros to 13.2 billion euros. This change describes June 2026 and, on its own, is not enough to draw a general conclusion about the effect of a rise in rates on demand. In July, the rate continued to rise, to 3.30 %, while lending fell back to 11.1 billion euros, before rising again to 12.2 billion euros in August.

The analysis should cover several months. In its publication on June 2026, the Banque de France indicates that production has fluctuated between 10.9 and 13.2 billion euros since the end of 2025. This corridor provides a more solid reference than a single monthly figure.

You should also check whether what is being considered is:

• housing loans excluding renegotiations, to track new demand;
• rates excluding fees and insurance, to compare the months on a like-for-like basis;
• seasonally adjusted data for production, in order to avoid calendar effects.

If you compare two months without taking these definitions into account, you risk confusing indicators that do not describe the same thing.

The useful reference point between the end of 2025 and August 2026

The recent trend is easier to understand through three milestones: the decline that began in mid-2024, the point at which this movement halted around mid-2025, and then the slight rise observed at the beginning of 2026. The Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority indicates that in December 2025, the average rate reached 3.08%, before a slight rebound at the beginning of 2026.

Over a full year, the ACPR also notes that credit production reached 171.3 billion euros in 2025, up by 29.3 %. In the first quarter of 2026, growth became more moderate, at +3 % compared with the first quarter of 2025. For a buyer, this means monitoring both the cost of borrowing and the volume of credit being distributed: together, they provide a more accurate picture of the market.

What these figures change about your borrowing capacity

Following mortgage rates month by month mainly helps you assess your room for manoeuvre. When the rate rises, a larger share of the monthly payment goes towards interest. With a fixed budget, this may reduce the amount you can borrow. When the rate stabilises or falls, borrowing capacity improves slightly.

However, the issue is not limited to the rate alone. The ACPR points out that the market remains governed by prudent lending criteria. In 2025, the average debt-service ratio is stable at 30.4 %, while loans exceeding 35 % account for 16.2 % of lending production. The flexibility margin used by banks stands at an average of 16.6 % in 2025, below the authorised ceiling of 20 % of production.

In practice, this means that a monthly movement in rates must be interpreted alongside the other constraints of the application:

• the level of income ;
• costs already incurred;
• the term of the loan ;
• the available deposit;
• the importance of the project in the lending criteria.

To explore the debt-service ratio framework in more detail, you can consult the HCSF rules for borrowing. If your situation is unusual, a brief discussion with your bank or an accounting professional can help check what a change in the rate would actually mean for you.

Why the structure of the market matters as much as the interest rate level

Interest-rate movements are easier to interpret when you also look at the structure of lending. In 2025, remortgaging accounted for 14.4 % on average over the year, while lending excluding remortgaging rose by 33.2 %. The market is therefore driven primarily by new projects, and less by the revision of existing loans.

The ACPR also identifies several useful indicators:

• the proportion of first-time buyers rose to 43.7 % in 2025;
• rental investment fell to 12.0%;
• output remains overwhelmingly focused on existing properties, at 77.6 %;
• bridging loans account for 6.4 % of lending;
• fixed-rate loans account for nearly 99.6 % of lending in 2025.

For a household working out its purchasing capacity, this data is useful. It shows a market where borrowing remains largely based on conventional fixed-rate finance for purchases of older properties. On the Alabaster Coast, where many projects involve country houses, longères, thatched cottages or flats, this stability in the financing model helps you compare your project with a clear national framework. If you are already looking at properties, the listings currently available on the Alabaster Coast give an indication of the budgets encountered at Cabinet Soudey, without claiming to represent the local market as a whole.

First-time buyers are a good indicator of the recovery

Banque de France publishes additional data on access to mortgage credit for first-time buyers, based on information collected from 12 resident banks, covering 90 % of total outstanding loans. It notes that the number of loans granted to first-time buyers, like the number of property sales and loans to all borrowers excluding remortgaging, has stabilised since spring 2026.

Another benchmark: the average initial term of new home loans for the purchase of a main residence is 23 years and 4 months for all borrowers, and 23 years and 10 months for first-time buyers, according to the publication for August 2026.

These figures do not indicate what you will personally obtain, but they show that the credit market is not static. If you are at the planning stage, stabilisation in volumes and terms helps to build a more realistic project than during a period of sudden change.

Follow the right indicators at the right pace

The simplest approach is to look at each new monthly publication from the Banque de France while always using the same reference points. Two public links are sufficient to avoid getting lost: the personal loans page for month-by-month monitoring, and the ACPR’s annual analysis of housing finance in 2025 to put the figures into perspective.

To avoid overinterpreting a publication, use the same framework for reading it:

• the average rate of new home loans excluding renegotiations ;
• monthly output;
• the proportion of remortgagings;
• the proportion of fixed-rate loans;
• the trend over several months, rather than a single reading.

This discipline is often more useful than searching for an ideal moment. Good timing is primarily when your budget is clear, your project is coherent and your financing is compatible with the current conditions.

Frequently asked questions